Will education policy decide the state election in North Rhine-Westphalia?

According to the latest findings from the Ethik-Monitor, the state election in North Rhine-Westphalia will be decided by the parties’ manifestos rather than by the lead candidates.

The role of the leading candidates and personal ties to the parties do not play a major part in voting decisions in North Rhine-Westphalia

For voters in North Rhine-Westphalia, the parties’ manifestos and the implications of the election result for federal politics are the most important factors in their own voting decisions. 78.8 per cent of German citizens consider party manifestos to be important, whilst 69.8 per cent state that the impact on federal politics is decisive for their own voting decisions. Significantly less important are the lead candidate (40.9 per cent) and personal attachment to the party (30.3 per cent). The generally poor assessment of the government’s performance at federal level, particularly that of the FDP, could therefore have a negative impact on the CDU and FDP.

Education policy is helping the SPD to victory in the election

Compared with the economic and social security systems, the functioning of the education system in North Rhine-Westphalia is rated poorly. Only 18.7 per cent of those surveyed believe that the education system in North Rhine-Westphalia works well. At least 32 per cent consider the economic system to be good. Almost half of those surveyed (49 per cent) consider the education system to be poor. Experience from past state elections shows that education policy is currently one of the most important factors influencing voting decisions at state level. The SPD candidate, Hannelore Kraft, scores significantly higher than her CDU opponent in this policy area. 44.6 per cent of those surveyed consider Ms Kraft to be competent in this field. By contrast, only 17.3 per cent regard Rüttgers as competent in this area. “Education policy could tip the balance in favour of the SPD in this election,” says political scientist Prof. Joachim Behnke of Zeppelin University.

Hannelore Kraft is the more honest and credible candidate

Soft factors also play a role in voters’ decisions. When asked which values the ideal politician should base their actions on, honesty came out clearly on top with 56.2 per cent. Credibility ranks second with 39.5 per cent. On both counts, the SPD candidate clearly outperforms the Minister-President. 32.9 per cent of those surveyed consider Ms Kraft to be honest, whilst only 15.3 per cent favour Rüttgers. In terms of credibility, the SPD’s lead candidate beats the CDU candidate by 32.9 per cent to 15.3 per cent. On the negative aspect of self-interest, Rüttgers is ahead of Kraft. 37.2 per cent believe that Rüttgers is more interested in his own well-being. Only 17.7 per cent say the same of the SPD’s Ms Kraft.

If you have any queries regarding the results, please contact Tim Bendixen at tim.bendixen@wertevolle-zukunft.de.